2035 Tipping Point | Demographic Winter Report #27

Reporting on the crisis of rapidly falling fertility

1. For Better or worse: Marriage Decline spells societal disaster – Timothy S. Goeglein in The Washington Times Jan. 23, 2025 –   https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/jan/23/better-worse-marriage-decline-spells-societal-disa/

 “It is now estimated that the Social Security trust funds which rely on having enough younger individuals pay into them to pay the benefits of those retiring, will run dry by 2034, resulting in retirees having their benefits cut by at least 20%.”

 

1. Japan’s looming Crisis: 2035 tipping point for population decline amid aging society – Julian Ryall in South China Post, Feb 16, 2025

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3298707/japans-looming-crisis-2035-tipping-point-population-decline-amid-ageing-society

“Japan’s decades-long fears over a contracting population, particularly in rural areas, where many regions are predominantly inhabited by elderly individuals, are about to worsen, with one analyst warning that even the country’s megacities will soon face population loss.”

“Around 2040, we will see the way the nation is gong to go, and I think we are inevitably going to see more compact cities, a more compact country and a more compact nation.”

1. Declining birth rate means there will be fewer people of working age to support the growing number of pensioners – John FitzGerald in  Irish Times Feb. 14, 2025

 https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/02/14/declining-birth-rate-means-there-will-be-fewer-people-of-working-age-to-support-the-growing-number-of-pensioners/#:~:text=A%20long%2Dterm%20decline%20in,close%20to%20the%20EU%20average.

 “Fewer children will also mean smaller family networks and the important social support they provide. Most older people in Ireland have children, grandchildren, nephews and nieces who provide valuable intergenerational bonds. Such links are likely to be significantly diminished later on in this century”